GOP focusing on key seats in Ohio and Texas to flip

Over the last few weeks, there have been some rather interesting developments for the House elections in 2026.

Democrats were leaning heavily into Wisconsin redrawing district maps to take two seats, but that never came to fruition.

Now, with everything that is going on, the GOP is targeting a couple of key seats in Ohio and Texas, and they are going to need them if they want to hold the House for the second half of Trump’s term.

Wisconsin disappointment

About two weeks ago, the liberal dominated Wisconsin Supreme Court refused to take on the gerrymandering case brought by Democrats regarding federal district lines.

Right now, the GOP holds a 6-2 advantage, with four of those seats solidly in the hands of Republicans, but the Dems want to get those other two seats to lean blue.

When the Court refused to take the case, it was like a slap in the face, with Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI) stating, “It’s good that Wisconsin has fair maps at the state level, but we deserve them at the federal level as well.

“Unfortunately, gerrymandered maps for members of Congress will remain in Wisconsin.”

GOP targets

With a very thin majority, the GOP is hoping that it can snag a few extra seats in Texas and Ohio to offset losses in other states.

Ohio has already redrawn its lines, and Texas will be voting on redistricting in the next session, both of which could be a crippling blow to Democrats chances in those states.

Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University, offered his two cents, stating, “I think the Speaker and party leadership look at even a handful of districts as really important, particularly if the natural trend — given the president’s popularity at this point and given historic midterm conditions — means that the Republican Party starts out assuming they’re going to lose a couple districts right off the bat.

“Ohio is going to have to redraw, one way or the other. Texas is mulling whether to redraw. And there are a lot of competing pressures.”

Most likely to flip in the Senate

The GOP has a thin margin in the Senate, but that could also change, as there are some seats up for grabs if they can get the right candidates.

Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is clearly in a contested seat, but Governor Kemp not running for the seat has put a damper on expectations. I am just hoping Rep. Greene (R-GA) does not make a run, as she is simply not someone I want to see in the Senate.

North Carolina will be fighting for the seat currently held by Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and it seems like Lara Trump could get into that fight. Regardless, that seat is going to be a toss-up. We are in the same situation in Maine with Senator Collins (R-ME), who is clearly ripe for an upset. We need her to step down and get someone else in there, or beat her in a primary race.

In Michigan, Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) is stepping down, and Trump did well in the 2024 election, but that has not paid off for congressional seats as of yet. That will be tested, and this is a seat that could be flipped. New Hampshire is also a seat that could be flipped, with a real chance of the GOP going 4-1 or 5-0 in these elections. If that happens, we are up to at least 55 seats, possibly more. I am not nearly as concerned about the Senate as I am in the House, though. That could be a bloodbath.