Certification of Election at Risk Over House Speaker Battle

While most of the reports surrounding Mike Johnson (R-LA) have been about him losing his speakership, there is another major ramification of this chaos.

If the House does not have a Speaker elected by January 6, the certification of the election will not be able to move forward.

Losing Support

Word on the street is that Donald Trump is not happy with Mike Johnson, which could throw the House into chaos when members return to session on January 3, 2025.

Generally speaking, the Speaker election is a formality, but that was far from the case last term, and it appears it could be repeated in the next session.

Trump allies and members of the Freedom Caucus, even those at odds with Trump, are looking to get rid of Johnson as Speaker.

Steve Bannon always seems to have a line on what Trump is thinking, and he recently stated, “Clearly, Johnson is not up to the task,” which does not bode well for Johnson.

Please Donald Trump

Numerous reports have surfaced that Johnson's allies are all but begging Donald Trump to step in to help Johnson, but Trump is reportedly mulling a very big question.

Trump knows that he can more or less bully Johnson into putting whatever he wants in legislation, so he needs to weigh that against Johnson’s inability to stand up to Democrats.

One Trump insider stated, “The president recognizes that [Johnson] is somebody he can push around. I think he’s weighing the benefit of that with, can this guy get it done.”

Trump has to make his mind up quickly, though, because January 6 will be here soon, which is when members of Congress meet to certify the election.

Taking Office

If the election is not certified, Donald Trump cannot take the oath of office. And if a House Speaker is not elected on January 3, that very well may be the case.

Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) stated, "If we have some kind of protracted fight where we can’t elect a speaker — the speaker’s not elected; we’re not sworn in. And if we’re not sworn in, we can’t certify the election.

"I would hope that President Trump would chime in and talk to those who are maybe a little hesitant, and say, ‘We’ve got to get going. We don’t have time.’"

From those who do not totally object to Johnson, that seems to be the norm, but there are numerous Republicans digging in against Johnson. I have to think this will all be resolved between Christmas and New Year’s. If not, once again, the House will be in chaos, and voters will likely take it out on the GOP in mid-term elections.