Ernst officially bows out of re-election

Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) has not had the smoothest ride since Trump took office, but I have always found her to be authentic and a solid conservative.

In an election year where the GOP was served up two big losses in Iowa in districts where Trump won in 2024, yes, I am worried about the 2026 elections.

Not having Ernst in there, having formally announced she will not run, gives Democrats a really good chance of flipping an eternally red Senate seat.

Time to go

Ernst is only 55, so I thought she had a couple more terms in her, but that is not the case.

While rumors were running wild, she confirmed that she is not running again.

The Iowa Senator stated, “It has been an honor to dedicate my life to the service of our great state and country,” adding that it was time to give back to her family.

She added, “After a tremendous amount of prayer and reflection, I will not be seeking re-election in 2026.”

No more right

As noted above, Ernst has not had the smoothest ride with Trump, and the general consensus is that she just does not have it in her to do this any longer, and I can appreciate that.

Heck, I only write about politics, and it is exhausting at times, so I cannot imagine being in the line of fire like that all the time.

Rachel Bade, a writer for Politico, stated that several Republicans had told her that “they just don’t see the fight in her anymore,” and this was long before she decided to call it quits.

Bade also stated that when Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) ran against her for a leadership role, she felt betrayed. And this does not even take into account when MAGA started to troll her on social media.

Dems see an opportunity

Over the last year or so, we have been seeing some movement in Iowa that is a bit scary, especially when you consider how well Trump did there in 2024.

The two upset wins in special elections allowed the Dems to break the super majority in the Iowa Senate for the first time in three years, so Dems now see this as an opening to flip a seat in the Senate.

Without an incumbent, Timothy Hagle, professor of political science at the University of Iowa, thinks Dems could steal it, stating, "It's kind of a headwind that they're running into. So it's hard to say whether Ernst not being in the race is going to give Democrats much more of a chance.”

With Trump’s 2024 win, I would normally say a strong MAGA candidate would make this a lock, but those recent special elections scare me. We also have to take into account Trump's feud with Senator Grassley (R-IA), who has been in office about as long as I have been alive. The GOP has to be very careful about the candidate it picks to replace Ernst, or we just might give away this seat when we can ill afford to do so.