New polling suggests JD Vance clear frontrunner in 2028

Mid-term elections have not even happened yet, but people are already looking forward to the 2028 presidential election.

New polling suggests that Vance is the clear frontrunner, but that could change rather dramatically based on how Trump’s presidency goes.

Won’t Endorse JD

With everyone assuming that being chosen as Trump’s VP would automatically earn Vance the president's endorsement, Trump recently advised everyone to pump the brakes on that idea.

When Trump was asked if Vance would be his successor, Trump responded, “No, but he’s very capable.” He continued, “I think you have a lot of very capable people. So far I think he’s doing a fantastic job. It’s too early. We’re just starting.”

When Fox News’ Bret Baier pushed Trump, stating, “By the time we get to the midterms, [Vance] is going to be looking for an endorsement,” the president deflected to talk about his accomplishments so far.

Trump also mentioned Secretary of State Marco Rubio, indicating that he has not yet made up his mind. When Vance was asked about the lack of endorsement, he took the high road and backed Trump’s view, stating it was far too early to be talking about 2028.

The Contenders

The 2028 field will likely be crowded, but I think we are realistically looking at three to four real contenders for the crown, with JD Vance having the clear advantage as Trump’s vice president. However, that status will depend heavily on how the country is doing as the election season begins.

Rubio failed to win the nomination in 2016, but this is not the same Rubio who ran during that cycle. Rubio has done some pretty amazing things, and he is doing a great job as Secretary of State, but his chances, like Vance's, will depend on how the administration is doing overall.

I supported DeSantis in 2024 and thought we missed a golden opportunity to have a strong two-term president in place. The only way I can see DeSantis being a contender in 2028 is if the Trump administration falters, but that would clearly give the Dems the advantage in the election. I am going to go out on a limb and say that DeSantis sits out the 2028 and comes back strong in 2032 or 2036.

Aside from those three, there are a handful of candidates who might be interested, those likely being DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, and possibly Texas Governor Greg Abbott, but I think he is quite happy as our governor and will not look to leave that post (he is not term-limited).

Vance Clear Favorite in Polling

Just as I alluded to above, Vance would be the logical choice if Trump has a good presidency, and right now, Vance is way out in front in polling for 2028.

The May survey by J.L. Partners showed Vance with 46% support, with nobody else in the field in double digits.

Governor DeSantis was sitting at 8%, Vivek Ramaswamy was at 7%, and Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) were both at 6%. Nikki Haley also appeared, having 5% support, but I think her political career in terms of winning the presidency is over.

The thing that scares me about Vance at the top of the ticket is his friendship with Ramaswamy, someone I could never support on a ticket. We are way ahead of ourselves on that front, however, so let’s wait until after the mid-terms when we have a better idea of how things will shake out.