Paxton accepts CPAC stage in Texas Senate showdown while Cornyn declines the invite

The Conservative Political Action Conference handed both candidates in the Texas Senate Republican runoff a microphone and a spotlight. Only one of them plans to use it.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has been listed as a confirmed speaker on CPAC's website since March 6, ahead of the conference scheduled for March 25 through 28 in Grapevine, Texas. Sen. John Cornyn, the 24-year incumbent who finished narrowly in first place in the March 3 primary, will not attend. A spokesperson for Cornyn confirmed his absence.

The contrast tells you something about how each man sees the conservative base.

CPAC lays the numbers bare

CPAC didn't just extend the invitations quietly. The organization posted the challenge publicly on X, and the ratings gap it advertised was not subtle:

"With Sen. John Cornyn (85% CPAC Lifetime, 53% '24) and AG Ken Paxton (100% Lifetime) locked in a fierce Texas Senate runoff, we've invited both to address conservatives at CPAC in Texas."

An 85 percent lifetime score sounds respectable until you see the 53 percent for 2024 sitting right next to it. A lifetime number masks recent drift; an annual number exposes it. Paxton's 100 percent lifetime rating, by contrast, leaves no room for ambiguity.

According to the Daily Caller, CPAC also announced it would include a Cornyn versus Paxton ballot question in its straw poll, conducted by Trump pollster Jim McLaughlin. The organization connected the stakes directly to a live policy fight:

"All eyes will be on the result as the Senate struggles with the Save Act."

The SAVE Act, the Trump-backed election integrity bill, has become a litmus test for whether Senate Republicans are willing to fight on the issues the base cares about most. Paxton has leaned into that fight publicly. Cornyn, to his credit, published an op-ed in the New York Post arguing for removing the filibuster to pass a universal voter ID bill. But writing an op-ed and showing up in front of the voters who will decide your political future are different acts of commitment.

The Trump factor looms over both campaigns

President Trump posted on Truth Social on March 4, one day after the primary, that he would endorse one of the two candidates "soon." He added a warning that landed like a thunderclap:

"I will be asking the candidate that I don't Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!"

That endorsement has not yet materialized. Politico reported, citing two anonymous sources, that Trump was delaying the decision. The uncertainty has created a strange holding pattern in the race, with both candidates positioning themselves to look like the most loyal foot soldier without knowing which direction the commander will point.

Paxton moved first. On March 5, he posted on X that he would consider exiting the race under one condition:

"Would consider dropping out of this race if Senate Leadership agrees to lift the filibuster and passes the SAVE America Act."

That is not a retreat. It is a dare. Paxton essentially told the Republican establishment: give me what the base wants on election integrity, and the seat is yours. If you won't, I'm staying in to fight for it. The framing puts the burden on Senate leadership, not on Paxton, and it ties his candidacy directly to a policy outcome rather than personal ambition.

Why the empty chair matters

Cornyn's decision to skip CPAC is a strategic choice, but it is also a revealing one. The conference is happening in Texas, in his own backyard, weeks before a May 26 runoff that will decide whether he returns to Washington. The audience filling those seats in Grapevine is precisely the audience he needs to persuade.

Republican primary voters in Texas are not looking for caution. They are looking for conviction. Cornyn's 24 years in the Senate give him experience and institutional knowledge, but they also give him a voting record that CPAC's own numbers suggest has drifted from the conservative baseline in recent years. Showing up to defend that record would have been the harder, braver play. Declining the invitation cedes the room to Paxton entirely.

And the room will be full. CPAC's confirmed speaker list includes former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss, Reza Pahlavi, independent journalist Nick Shirley, and Daily Caller Editor-in-Chief Amber Duke. This is not a fringe gathering. It is the conservative movement's main stage, hosted in the biggest red state in the country, during the hottest Republican primary of the cycle.

The runoff ahead

The winner of the May 26 runoff will face Democratic nominee James Talarico in the general election. In Texas, that general is a formality. The real contest is happening now, between two competing visions of what Republican governance should look like:

• Cornyn represents the institutionalist wing, the senator who knows where the levers are and has pulled them for two decades.
• Paxton represents the combative wing, the attorney general who has spent years suing the federal government and picking fights that the base wanted someone to pick.

CPAC offered both men the same platform. One of them will stand on it. The other chose not to. Republican voters in Texas will decide in May whether that absence was prudent or telling.

The straw poll results from Grapevine won't carry binding weight. But when only one candidate shows up to make his case, the poll is almost beside the point. The empty podium speaks for itself.